The People’s Daily reported that house prices are getting higher and higher, and places do not want house prices to fall.

With the continuous rise in housing prices, the central government has been increasingly tightening the real estate market since the end of 2009. Every time, the expectations of the public hope that the price will fall, but contrary to expectations, the house price will increase more and more, especially in big cities. Why is the house price getting higher and higher? How to break the curse of "one tone is going up"?

Regulatory policies have repeatedly failed

In December 2009, in order to curb the excessive rise in housing prices in some cities, the central government introduced the “four countries” to curb investment speculative purchases and large-scale promotion of affordable housing projects. Immediately afterwards, on April 27, 2010, the State Council issued the “most stringent regulatory policy in history” – “National Ten Articles”.

The strict “National Ten” covers almost all policy tools that can be used. At the beginning of the policy, the transaction volume dropped sharply and the price was loose. However, after more than four months of wait-and-see, the trading volume and house prices rebounded rapidly.

Later, from 2011 to 2012, new policies such as “Limited Loan”, “Restricted Purchase” and “Limited to New” “New Country Eight Articles” were continuously introduced, and continuous regulation made the housing price increase to be contained. Developer funds There is tension. Just when everyone thought that the property market was entering a cold winter, a miracle happened. In November 2012, the property market suddenly became hot, and eventually ended up at the end of the year with hot sales.

In 2013, the new policy of “New Five Articles” was introduced: in addition to emphasizing the strict implementation of commodity housing purchase restriction measures and the implementation of differentiated housing credit policies, the personal income tax on second-hand housing transactions was adjusted from 1% of the total transaction amount to 20% of the difference. This is called the biggest highlight of the New Deal.

However, the "New Five Articles" still did not let the property market cool down, but instead set off a reaction to hot deals and rising prices. According to the “Top 50 Real Estate Sales in the First Half of 2013” ​​issued by Ke Rui Rui Information Group, the sales performance of large-scale real estate enterprises in the first half of the year generally increased significantly. According to statistics, the volume of second-hand housing in the country has skyrocketed.

Poor medicine is not good

The control policies formulated by the central government, why do they always stabilize housing prices after a period of time?

In-depth observation, the root of the real estate industry problem lies in the land. Around the land, there are many interest groups competing: local governments increase their finances by selling land, and at the same time, they want land prices to rise to increase investment, employment and GDP... and developers are looking forward to rising house prices, on the one hand gaining profits, on the other hand, land prices Rising, house prices are unlikely to fall. It can be seen that although the central government has good wishes, its regulatory policies have not touched the root of the problem, so it can only temporarily curb housing prices. After a period of time, prices have rebounded strongly.

In fact, although the regulation and control policy can not cure the disease in the real estate market, but the drug strength is not small, why is the efficacy poor? According to expert analysis, mainly because some local governments do not want house prices to fall, they will not be in place when implementing policies, which will eventually disintegrate the effects of regulation. For example, there are many tactics to resolve the rise in housing prices to meet the above differences: some separate the price of commercial housing and fine decoration, and some of the real estate prices in the outer suburbs are included in the statistics to lower the average price of real estate, and some suspend the issuance of pre-sale certificates for high-priced houses. Wait. In addition, there are articles on statistics.

For other reasons why prices have repeatedly increased, Yuan Dejun, chief economist of Inner Mongolia Bank, said that most of the existing real estate regulation has “emergency”. When the house price rises rapidly, it will urgently introduce a regulation and control policy, and then enter the "policy vacuum period." When the house price enters a new round of upswing, it will start a new round of regulation and control. Second, the accountability system for real estate regulation has not been implemented.

Another analysis pointed out that for ordinary consumers, because of inflation, they are reluctant to deposit money into banks, and they like to invest in the property market that is constantly appreciating. From this perspective, housing has not only the use of functions, but also the function of money. This makes it hard to fall in house prices.

Long-acting mechanism to play three punches

As house prices have risen again and again, the call to establish a long-term mechanism for real estate regulation has become increasingly high. Zhang Monan (microblogging), deputy researcher of the World Economic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, believes that to cultivate a long-term mechanism for real estate development, starting with the construction of a real estate system and building a multi-level housing security system, we must not rely solely on suppression and restrictions. Give the market to the market, which is administered by the government to the government.

Experts pointed out that the long-term mechanism should focus on reform, but not on local and emergency regulation. Gu Yunchang, vice president of the China Housing and Real Estate Research Association, said: "The establishment of the long-term mechanism of the property market lies in reform. We have been heavily regulated in the past, so the reform has not progressed much or even progressed."

Gu Yunchang said that the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate regulation and control will ultimately be achieved through reforms in finance, taxation, finance, and land, and the reform plan will inevitably require extensive consultation. Specifically, in terms of real estate fiscal and taxation, it is necessary to consider the reform plan in an integrated manner. Property tax is an important component; in terms of finance, it is necessary to make a difference in the leverage of supply and demand, and treat it differently; in terms of land, it is necessary to break the urban and rural Yuanhua "barriers" and early rectification of small property houses.

It is reported that the long-term mechanism for real estate regulation and control is currently being promoted. Among them, the three basic tasks, including the expansion of the property tax pilot, the national networking of the personal housing information system, and the unified registration system for the real estate have begun.

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